Have the article read by OpenAI (Beta). Please note that AI translations may take some time to process.On October 29, Turkey marks the 100th anniversary of its modern republic’s birth. The program of celebrations was only published a week before and the government “has not even extended invitations to foreign leaders“, according to Soli Özel, professor of International Relations at the Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accused by his detractors of praising a “new Turkey” which is more conservative and more religious. The Turkish president is thus preparing a new constitution: This new constitution would guarantee women the right to wear the veil in all circumstances, would establish “the family (as) the foundation of society” and would stipulate that marriage can only be entered into “between a man and a woman“ as Erdogan has mentioned very frequently during his campaign since his re-election, and again last week.
Since its founding, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has „strived to build an identity and alternative narratives to the Republic“, notes Seren Selvin Korkmaz, director of the Istanbul Institute of Political Research. “The polarisation of Turkey has even extended to the centenary celebrations: the AKP speaks of the ‘Century of Turkey’, others of the ‘Second Century’ of the Republic,“ she added. Apart from shaping Turkish politics and society, Erdogan appears also strongly aware of the geopolitical influence he can wield.
Erdogan unblocked Sweden’s NATO accession
After a 17-month diplomatic standoff, Erdogan signed the Stockholm accession protocols on Monday and sent the documents to the Parliamentary Assembly in Ankara for ratification. He stressed that the final decision will be made in the parliament, where his party, the AKP, has a majority along with its ally, the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, and the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, were confident of a rapid entry of Sweden into the alliance.
The Turkish president said earlier that he would give his approval to Sweden’s accession “if the US keeps its promises“, referring to the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, blocked by the US Congress.
Ankara lifted the veto and allowed Finland to join the Atlantic Alliance in March, but only after the removal of the embargo on the sale of arms to Turkey that Helsinki had imposed in 2019, following Turkish operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Finland, which applied to join NATO at the same time as Sweden, was granted membership in April.
Turkey repeatedly accused Sweden of harbouring outlawed Kurdish militants and demanded their extradition. Erdogan also asked Sweden to take measures over Quran burnings at protests in the country that have angered many in Muslim countries.
Turkey and Hungary are the last NATO members that have not yet ratified Sweden’s entry, which must be approved by all members before it becomes effective. If the green light also comes from Hungary, Sweden will probably be able to join the alliance before the meeting of NATO foreign ministers scheduled for November 28 and 29 at the headquarters in Brussels.
Turkey ‘no longer expects anything’ from EU, Erdogan says
In Ankara’s relations with the EU however, no progress seems in sight. The Turkish president said on October 1 that his country “no longer expects anything from the European Union, which has kept us waiting at its door for 40 years”.
“We have kept all the promises we have made to the EU but they have kept almost none of theirs,” he said, adding that he would not “tolerate any new demands or conditions on the accession process” for his country to join the bloc.
In July ahead of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council on Turkey, Slovenia’s Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon had stressed that a discussion about Turkey’s EU membership bid made sense if the country showed a sincere interest. Regarding the number of challenges such as migration, the Cyprus issue, and Turkey’s mediator role in the Ukraine war, there was a lot to talk about.
Mediator in the Ukraine war
Last year, Turkey offered itself as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, helping to broker a deal that allowed safe grain exports via the Black Sea. Ever since, Turkey has been in talks with both sides about reviving the deal, which collapsed after Russia pulled out less than a year later.
Both Russia and Ukraine are preparing for a gruelling winter ahead, with Ukraine warning of renewed strikes on its energy infrastructure and Russia trying to suppress a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
On October 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Turkey will take part in peace talks at the end of October to discuss the end of the Ukraine war. “Turkey will participate, adding its authoritative voice and stance,” Zelensky said. Russia is not expected to take part in the talks, which Zelensky hopes will rally support for his own peace plan.
The Mediterranean island of Malta is hosting the round of Ukraine peace talks on October 28 and 29, after similar meetings in the Saudi city of Jeddah and Copenhagen earlier this year. Representatives from around 40 countries including China, India, the United States and Ukraine took part in the Saudi summit, which did not result in a final declaration.
Erdogan calls Hamas freedom fighters
In Erdogan’s first response to the deadly October 7 attacks by Hamas, the Turkish president had taken a measured tone, condemning all attacks against civilians and urging Israel to be measured in its response. But he became much more vocal after the deadly strike on Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza last week, when Hamas immediately after the explosion accused Israel of shelling the hospital. Israel, on the other hand, said a misguided rocket from Gaza was responsible. The explosion led to protests across the Muslim world.
On Wednesday, he said he was cancelling plans to visit Israel because of its “inhumane war” against Hamas militants in Gaza. The Turkish leader added that he did not view Hamas as a terrorist organisation but as “liberators”, fighting for their land, drawing swift and angry condemnation from the Israeli government.
Ankara maintains contacts with Hamas and, according to its own statements, is trying to secure the release of hostages. Hamas is considered a terrorist organisation in the US, Europe and Israel, but not in Turkey.
Erdogan spoke on the phone with the head of Islamist Hamas, Ismail Haniya. According to Turkish sources, Erdogan said that a lasting peace solution in the Middle East is only possible with a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. He said that Turkey would continue to advocate a lasting peace solution on the international stage. The press service of the Turkish government announced on Saturday on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), that Turkey will continue to work for a ceasefire in the region as soon as possible. Erdogan also wanted to seek further humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip.
Turkey’s activities in the Western Balkans
Turkey expanded its influence in the Western Balkans in recent years, mainly in the region’s countries with a Muslim population. In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Ankara expanded its presence through the opening of educational institutions, but also through large infrastructure projects and networks of Turkish entrepreneurs. Turkey has invested more than 284 million Euro in the infrastructure of BiH and the Belgrade-Sarajevo highway project worth four billion Euro, financed by Ankara, was also announced.
In a recently published report on foreign trade by the Albanian Institute of Statistics for the period January to July 2023, Turkey ranks as Albania’s third largest trading partner, accounting for 6.8 percent of the volume.
Turkey taking over NATO Kosovo mission KFOR
Turkey is also flexing its muscles in Serbia and Kosovo. On October 25, Turkey’s Chief of the Armed Forces Yaşar Güler met with Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Miloš Vučević in Belgrade. “Turkey has a large and significant political, economic, security and cultural influence and importance for the area of the Western Balkans,” said Vučević.
While Güler stressed that Turkey will support Serbia’s EU accession, another dominant topic was the security issue in Northern Kosovo. The NATO-led force KFOR in Kosovo changes command on a regular basis, last in October. The Turkish General Özkan Ulutas took over leadership of the 4,500-strong force. It comes at a time of renewed tensions between Kosovo and neighbouring Serbia. On September 24, Kosovo Serb paramilitaries ambushed a Kosovan police patrol in northern Kosovo, which is almost exclusively populated by Serbs. Three Serbs and one Kosovo police officer died in the shoot-out.
“We are encouraged by the assurances we received from Mr Güler regarding the security of the Serbian community in Kosovo and Metohija,” said Vučević. He added that Serbia will insist that “on the administrative line towards Kosovo and Metohija, only members of KFOR should be present on the Kosovo-Metohija side and that joint patrols by members of the Serbian Army and members of KFOR should continue along the administrative line“. Serbia also encourages “a direct communication between the Chief of the General Staff in the Serbian Armed Forces and the KFOR commander“, he added.
Turkey distancing itself from the West?
With the Turkish Republic entering its second century, the question remains in which direction Erdogan is trying to steer the country and if he will ultimately be successful.
For Berk Esen, a professor at Sabanci University in Istanbul, “Erdogan is pushing for a Second Republic, more conservative, more Islamic, which distances itself from the West“.
“He tries to leave his mark on all important political fields and on all projects. But whether it is celebrating the country’s independence or honouring the army“, of which the president is commander-in-chief, “Mustafa Kemal Atatürk is everywhere,” notes the academic. “He has not completely succeeded in erasing it, but that is probably what he will try to do after 2023,” expects Esen.
This Article has been edited and corrected. An earlier version had a quote that was wrongly attributed to Seren Selvin Korkamaz.
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