Heat, drought and water scarcity could fundamentally change agriculture in parts of Europe, with some crops no longer viable in the driest areas of the Mediterranean, European Environment Agency (EEA) Executive Director Leena Ylä-Mononen said.
“Some crops will not grow anymore, especially in the most arid Mediterranean, southern European area,” Ylä-Mononen said in an interview with correspondents of the European Newsroom (enr) published Tuesday. More intensive irrigation would not necessarily provide a solution because of water possible water scarcity. Some land currently used for farming might therefore no longer be suitable for agriculture in some regions in Europe, she said.
This summer gave the “clearest possible illustration” of what Europe is facing, she told the enr. “Severe droughts have disrupted agriculture, our transport, and even energy infrastructure. And we have seen intense heatwaves across many parts of Europe that have had huge impacts on the infrastructure, health and well-being of people.” Harvests were coming in late and smaller, “so we may have even food security issues this winter,” Ylä-Mononen warned.
The effects are spreading beyond Europe’s traditional dry zones, according to Ylä-Mononen. She pointed to drought in Ukraine and Hungary, as well as unusually dry conditions in the United Kingdom and her home country, Finland. Although northern Europe could become suitable for some additional crops, it was unlikely to compensate for recurring losses caused by drought, floods and extreme weather elsewhere, she added.
Future-proof solutions
Ylä-Mononen urged European politicians to look beyond the next election and plan for the climate risks already foreseeable over the next decade. “This kind of short-termism is not going to help us,” she said, arguing that infrastructure and agricultural investment decisions needed to take account of ten-, 20- and 50-year time horizons.
The warning comes as the EU’s Joint Research Centre reports drought conditions across half of the EU and the United Kingdom, with low river flows and deteriorating conditions for some crops in several parts of Europe.
In an assessment released in March – ahead of this year’s summer heatwaves – the EEA said “at present, drought (54%), heavy rain (21%), frost (16%), and hail (9%) together account for 80% of agricultural losses in the EU.”
Ylä-Mononen said Europe could no longer treat climate adaptation as an optional policy to be addressed when budgets allow. Heat and drought are already affecting agriculture, water resources, transport and energy systems, and some damage could have been avoided through earlier investment, she said.
The EEA chief stressed that adaptation must complement, not replace, mitigation: Europe needs both to reduce emissions and to prepare for climate impacts that will continue even under ambitious emissions cuts. But the costs of both action and inaction are rising.
Estimates of adaptation costs in the sectors transport, energy and agriculture cited by the EEA range from 53 billion Euro to 137 billion Euro per year until 2050, depending on the scenario of temperature rise above pre-industrial levels.
The European Environment Agency (EEA) is the EU agency that provides independent environmental data, assessments and analysis to support policymaking in Europe.