Have the article read by OpenAI (Beta). Please note that AI translations may take some time to process.The European Union must urgently prepare for the possibility of a large-scale war with Russia, according to a strategy paper published by the European Commission on Wednesday.
The so-called White Paper suggests that if Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine, it may extend its territorial ambitions further, with 2030 named as a possible time frame.
Europe must be ready for war if it wants to avoid it, the text says.
The new strategy is partly in response to declarations by US President Donald Trump, which indicate that the United States may no longer be unconditionally available as a guarantor for peace in Europe.
“The security architecture that we relied on can no longer be taken for granted,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, emphasising the need for increased defence spending and investments in European defence industrial capabilities.
The Commission highlighted seven areas in which existing military capability gaps must be closed as a matter of priority. These include air defence and missile defence, drone systems and electronic warfare.
The Commission envisages that EU states should closely cooperate in purchasing and jointly order at least 40% of the required goods, in order to overcome dependencies and efficiently acquire large quantities of consumables such as ammunition, missiles and drones.
According to the paper, pooling demand also reduces costs, sends clear demand signals to the arms industry and enables smooth cooperation among national armed forces.
The Commission has already announced that some 800 billion Euro are to be mobilized for rearmament projects – this includes a new 150 billion EURO fund paired with temporarily exempting certain defence investments from the bloc’s strict debt and deficit limits.
The Commission also plans to relax regulations and requirements for the arms industry, aiming to provide even stronger military support to Ukraine, which is under attack from Russia.
EU keeps wording around US dependency vague
The draft warns about dependence on the US, but the wording is more vague than envisaged by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.
Explicit passages about the US that were part of an older draft of the document were removed after intervention by von der Leyen’s cabinet.
Those had included warnings that the US might limit or prohibit the use of key components for military operational capability, likely influenced by recent experiences in Ukraine, where the Trump administration remotely restricted the use of US weapons systems following a disastrous meeting at the White House between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
There is concern that the US could do the same to NATO partners in the event of disagreements or conflicts and that it might withdraw militarily from Europe if US arms companies receive fewer orders from the EU in the future.
The removal of those passages has been criticized in the European Parliament.
German Green Party member Hannah Neumann said a white paper on European defence only makes sense if it recognizes reality, including an honest reassessment of trans-Atlantic relations. (19. March)
The editorial responsibility for the publication lies with dpa.