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Brussels – The Heads of State and Government of the European Union meet this Monday in Brussels with the aim of agreeing on the new leadership of the institutions of the European Union, an agreement that was expected by the end of the month but could be reached at this meeting if predictions hold that the conservative Ursula Von der Leyen will continue to lead the European Commission in exchange for the European Council to be taken over by former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, a socialist, and for the still Estonian Prime Minister, the liberal Kaja Kallas, to succeed Josep Borrell as head of European diplomacy.
This is an informal dinner of leaders so no definitive decision can be formally adopted, but a political agreement may be reached that confirms the distribution of high positions if the leaders finalize a design that respects the complex ideological, geographical and gender balances, among others, that are required.
The discussion comes open to Monday’s meeting because, according to several senior diplomats, negotiations have been avoided in forums such as the recent G7 where only some members were represented because, sources say, previous experiences have shown that any option discussed beforehand, without all parties at the table, “makes it more difficult” than smoothes the chances of agreement.
In any case, it is taken for granted that there have been contacts between capitals to exchange views and set priorities, and the fact that the governments of two of the candidates –-Portuguese and Estonian– have publicly shown their support points to the progress of the agreement, as these are moves that in the past have been made more discreetly.
To complete this architecture, leaders will also include in the agreement the presidency of the European Parliament, which is expected to be maintained by the ‘popular’ Roberta Metsola in the first half of the legislature, although the power of her appointment lies with the plenary of the European Parliament, which will vote on the candidacy on July 16 in Strasbourg (France).
The other names, those of the presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council as well as the High Representative of the EU, their appointment is the prerogative of the Twenty-Seven and requires a qualified majority in the Council for adoption, which reduces the veto power of ultra-conservative governments like that of Viktor Orbán, who has already shown opposition to Von der Leyen’s re-election. The head of the European Commission must also be submitted to a vote of the European Parliament, probably also in the July plenary if there is a solid agreement by then.
Von der Leyen has the support of her political family, the EPP, but also the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the Liberals (Renew) have indicated that they will support her to pass the Parliament’s scrutiny, although they have set a ‘red line’ that she does not make a pact with ultra-conservative or far-right MEPs, that is, neither with Identity and Democracy (ID, led by the National Rally of the French Marine Le Pen) nor with the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which include Vox and the Brothers of Italy of Giorgia Meloni.
In informal predictions, other names have been considered in recent weeks to challenge Von der Leyen for the position, such as the Italian Mario Draghi who would have the support, for example, of the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, but the debacle in the European elections of the French liberals against Le Pen’s far-right has strongly weakened the weight of the French leader.
There seems to be fewer doubts about Costa’s options, who resigned as prime minister of Portugal in November over a corruption scandal involving his chief of staff, but who now has the support of the conservative Portuguese government to succeed Charles Michel as president of the European Council from December 1.
With this distribution that reserves the European Commission for the EPP and the European Council for the Social Democrats, Kallas’s candidacy gains momentum as head of European diplomacy, as it would give the liberals the third seat of top jobs (‘Top Jobs’ in community jargon) and has an accredited profile after gaining prominence as a vocal critic of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Her appointment will cover other balance ‘boxes’ as a representative of a small country and from the eastern European geography.
The Heads of State and Government will also take advantage of Monday’s informal dinner to outline the architecture of the next College of Commissioners, which, if predictions hold, will again be chaired by Von der Leyen. The goal this time is not to name each portfolio –it is a task that the Commission president will assume in coordination with the capitals– but to indicate to Brussels what the priorities of the next legislature should be and to point out the guidelines for the vice presidencies and competencies.
The next head of the European Commission, chosen by the 27, will be responsible for defining the internal design of their Commission, but each political family and government will seek to influence its composition and agenda on Monday, which, according to several sources, could complicate negotiations this time.
The European People’s Party (EPP), which aims to retain its candidate, Von der Leyen, as Commission president, also wants to keep heavy vice presidencies like the economic one now led by the Latvian ‘popular’ Valdis Dombrovskis or significant competencies like agricultural policies.
European socialists, with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as chief negotiators of the four governments they have in the Council, also demand important portfolios in the new Executive: Spain is pushing for Teresa Ribera to lead the climate and energy agenda of the new Commission, but European social democrats also want to place their main candidate for the European elections, the Luxembourger Nicolas Schmit.
The College of Commissioners has representatives from all 27 countries, and each government is responsible for appointing the country’s candidate, so for Von der Leyen to be re-elected, she first needs the progressive government of Scholz to nominate her as the candidate. This move will cost the socialists a seat on the European Commission but will be rebalanced if Schmit receives a relevant portfolio; otherwise, the conservative Luxembourg government will consider withdrawing its support and presenting another candidate of its own ideology. (June 17)