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Europe must urgently and quickly rearm to have a “credible deterrent” mechanism by 2030, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
In a speech in Copenhagen, the Commission President outlined the four key priorities of the much-anticipated White Paper on European defense that the Commission will present, and the need for Europe’s rearmament by 2030 – a plan the Commission calls “Readiness 2030.” “By 2030, Europe must have a strong European defense posture. ‘Readiness 2030’ means to rearm and develop our capabilities to have a credible deterrence,” von der Leyen said.
The first priority – and the most important – is to increase defense spending. “Member States’ defense spending has increased by over 31% since 2021. This is good – but not enough, as it is well below the corresponding expenditures of the US, Russia, and China,” von der Leyen said. Two weeks ago, the Commission presented a plan to mobilize investments worth 800 billion euros in European defense. This includes a new instrument – called “SAFE” – which can quickly provide member states with loans of 150 billion euros for defense investments. At the same time, the Commission is proposing to activate the so-called “National Escape Clause” to grant member states more flexibility to spend more on defense without violating fiscal rules that cap the deficit at 3% of GDP. This has the potential to mobilize additional defense spending of up to 1.5% of GDP, or about 650 billion euros over the next four years. Concurrently, the Commission is working to tap into private financing – either from the EIB or capital markets.
The second priority is “to buy more European.” According to von der Leyen, “we must close our capability gaps in a European way” by 2030, and this means “large-scale, pan-European cooperation” to address gaps in priority areas such as military mobility, investments in air and missile defense, artillery systems, munitions and missiles, drones, military artificial intelligence, or quantum computing. “The cost and complexity of large-scale projects far exceed any member state’s capability,” said the Commission President, stressing that joint procurements must be strengthened.
The third and “most strategic” priority for European defense is Ukraine. As the Commission President said, “we must make Ukraine strong enough – like a ‘steel hedgehog’ – to be indigestible to any potential invader.” The EU has already invested around 50 billion euros in military support and trained more than 73,000 Ukrainian troops, while the support for Ukraine’s accession prospects to the EU remains strong. Von der Leyen also announced that a joint Task Force with Ukraine would be established, coordinating the EU’s and member states’ military support.
The fourth priority concerns strengthening Europe’s defense industrial base. Today, most defense investments go outside Europe, and this trend must change, starting with investments in Europe, von der Leyen said. However, she acknowledged that Europe’s defense industrial base still has structural weaknesses: it is not yet able to produce defense systems and equipment in the quantities and speed needed by member states and remains excessively fragmented, dominated by national players supplying domestic markets. According to the Commission, companies need a steady stream of multi-year orders to direct their investments. To this end, “we will create a European Military Sales Mechanism,” said von der Leyen.
Finally, the Commission President stated that “we are fully committed to cooperating with NATO and the United States. Our security is indivisible. This is why we are working to open new paths for security with the United Kingdom and other partners in Europe, in our neighborhood, or within the G7. From Canada to Norway. And indeed as far away as India and other parts of Asia.” (18/3/2025)