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Conservatives win election in Germany – Right-wing is the second strongest force

by AI | 24.Feb 2025 | Europe in brief AI

The conservative parties CDU/CSU win the federal election and are likely to provide the next German chancellor. A Merz government will also bring changes to Brussels.

Friedrich Merz (CDU), party chairman and chancellor candidate, stands on stage at the CDU party headquarters in Berlin after the forecast for the Bundestag election results. On Sunday, the early election for the 21st German Bundestag took place. Photo: Michael Kappeler/dpa

Berlin (dpa) – Change of power in Germany: The conservative sister parties CDU/CSU have clearly won the Bundestag election and are likely to make Friedrich Merz the next chancellor. According to the preliminary results, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) comes in second place. They are followed by the social democratic SPD, which is plunging to a historic low, as well as the Greens. The Left is surprisingly strong in the Bundestag, the German parliament. The left-conservative alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) fail at the five-percent threshold and miss entering parliament.

Now everything points to an alliance of the CDU/CSU and SPD, as a black-green coalition (CDU/CSU and Greens) does not have a majority of mandates. A collaboration with the AfD, which is partly classified as right-wing extremist, and which has doubled its percentage to 20.8 percent (Election 2021: 10.4 percent), has been ruled out by CDU leader Merz.

Merz: «Quickly become capable of action»

According to the preliminary result, the Union comes in at 28.5 percent (Election 2021: 24.1 percent). CDU leader Merz now has the best chances of becoming the next chancellor after Olaf Scholz (SPD) – however, he initially remains in office. Merz announced that he wants to form a government by Easter at the latest. Merz emphasized that it is also important for Europe that there is no prolonged period of limbo. On X, he wrote that Europe is waiting for Germany. «We need to become capable of action again quickly.»

Scholz takes responsibility 

The SPD achieved its worst result in a Bundestag election with 16.4 percent (2021: 25.7 percent). Scholz spoke of a bitter result and a defeat for which he also took responsibility. In the event of coalition talks, he is not available as a negotiator.

The Greens with chancellor candidate Robert Habeck drop to 11.6 percent (2021: 14.7 percent). The Left improve significantly to 8.8 percent (2021: 4.9 percent).

For the FDP, which exits the parliament with only 4.3 percent (2021: 11.4 percent), a change at the top is now pending: Party leader Christian Lindner wrote on X in the evening: «Now I am leaving active politics.» Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW narrowly misses the five-percent hurdle: According to the Federal Election Office, the BSW comes to 4.972 percent.

The new Bundestag has 630 seats – 316 seats are needed for a majority. According to the preliminary result, the Union reaches 208 seats in the new parliament. The SPD wins 120 mandates. A governmental coalition of the two factions is thus possible. The results are not sufficient for a black-green coalition: The Greens receive only 85 deputies. The AfD significantly enlarges its faction with 152 seats. The Left has 64 deputies. The South Schleswig Voter’s Association, which is exempt from the five-percent hurdle as a party of the Danish and Frisian minority, wins one mandate again.

AfD wants to co-govern

AfD leader Alice Weidel spoke of a historic result. «They wanted to halve us, the opposite has happened.» The AfD is ready to collaborate with the Union. «Our hand will always be extended for government participation to implement the people’s will.» At the same time, she announced: «We will chase the others to ensure they make rational policies for our country.» The AfD’s strongholds are in the east: The AfD has become the strongest force in all five East German states.

According to public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, voter turnout was higher at 83.0 to 83.1 percent than in 2021 (76.4 percent) and reached the highest level since reunification. A total of 59.2 million people were called to vote, of which a good 42 percent were 60 years or older.

The election was brought forward by seven months – previously, elections were only brought forward in 1972, 1983, and 2005. The reason is that the traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP broke apart in November.

Election campaign recently focused mainly on migration

The short winter election campaign was recently dominated by the debate on limiting migration. Merz had demanded that asylum seekers should also be turned away at the German borders – something which, from the point of view of the Greens and SPD, would violate European law. Merz faced harsh criticism after the Union pushed through a motion on migration policy in the Bundestag with votes from the AfD. (February 24)