Have the article read by OpenAI (Beta). Please note that AI translations may take some time to process.From Thursday to Sunday, June 6-9, some 370 million voters are called to the polls in the 27 European Union member states to elect the next 720 members for the European Parliament.
The outcome of these elections will also help determine the composition of the next European Commission, whose current chief Ursula von der Leyen is hoping for a second term.
The latest polls and projections show that the far right is poised to make significant gains in the European Parliament, with parties once on the fringes now growing in influence in the EU. Overall, however, Europe’s political centre is expected to hold.
With the start of the elections just one day away, election campaigns across the bloc are on the home stretch – but in some countries, the EU-wide vote is being overshadowed by national issues grabbing voters’ attention.
Far right set for gains
The election is widely predicted to see a surge for extreme-right lawmakers, according to opinion polls that predict the two main far-right factions – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) group – winning around a quarter of the seats in the next Parliament.
A backlash against climate change policies, rising migration, economic uncertainty, and anti-establishment anger are among a myriad of reasons put forward by analysts to explain the far-right surge.
Already at the start of the year, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicted a “sharp right turn” with anti-EU parties winning in nine EU countries, including Belgium, Italy and France. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV) formed a coalition with three other parties last month after winning the general election in November.
“Today there is room to build a different majority in the European Parliament, and for different policies,” said Italian prime minister and the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, Giorgia Meloni, last week.
At the EU level, FdI is part of the ECR group, of which Meloni is also president. Last week, she said she had several things in common with Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s right-wing National Rally (RN), which is part of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.
“It is clear that there are points in common,” Meloni told the Trento Economy Festival. “There are points of contact on combating illegal immigration, on the approach to the Green transition, on defence of the European identity”.
A bumpy ride in France
France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party holds a commanding lead for upcoming European Parliament elections, according to an opinion poll published on Sunday, June 2. The poll was conducted among 1,803 people between May 29 and 31.
The extreme-right RN’s lead candidate, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, is credited with 32.5 percent of voting intentions in the poll. Valérie Hayer, lead candidate for the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament and an ally of centre-right President Emmanuel Macron, came second with 16 percent, followed by centre-left socialist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann with 13 percent.
Domestically in France, the election campaign has seen some bumps in the road in recent days.
On Monday, 35-year-old Prime Minister Gabriel Attal faced accusations of deliberately seeking to eclipse Hayer in European elections when he unexpectedly appeared on a stage where she was taking part in a radio debate.
Attal had already faced similar accusations last month when he, not Hayer, took part in a televised TV debate with Jordan Bardella.
National issues steer attention
In Spain, the latest pre-election survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) predicted a victory for the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), but most other polls predict that the country’s conservative People’s Party (PP) will win the elections.
However, the leaders of the main political parties focus on the country’s internal issues – such as the Amnesty law for the withdrawal of legal actions against several Catalan separatists and corruption cases – resulting in little attention for the European Parliament elections.
Meanwhile, Portugal grapples with fears of low turnout. It is one of the EU countries that allows early voting, which was reinforced this year in an attempt by the Portuguese authorities to encourage people to vote. Many Portuguese went to the polls several days early last Sunday, following the country’s worst abstention rate during the 2019 elections, when around 69 percent of eligible people didn’t vote. This was the worst rate since joining the EU in 1986.
Slovenia will hold three referendums at the same time as the European elections, including on assisted voluntary end-of-life and legalisation of cannabis.
In addition, the process of recognising Palestinian statehood was underway just before the elections. As a result, European issues have not received as much attention as they would otherwise have. On Tuesday night, the Slovenian parliament formally approved the recognition, making Slovenia the latest European country to do so after Spain, Ireland and Norway.
Government parties in Slovenia had hoped that the simultaneous referendums would increase turnout in the European elections. A poll commissioned by national daily newspaper Delo last Friday showed that 39 percent would turn up to vote, ten percentage points more than in the previous EU election, and altogether a higher turnout than in any EU election in Slovenia so far.
In Slovakia, the attack on pro-Russia Prime Minister Robert Fico has shaken up the campaign and could boost support for his populist coalition.
In Poland, where Donald Tusk’s pro-EU government came to power at the end of 2023, the campaign remained marked by the angry farmers, supported by the right-wing nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS).
Migration on voters’ minds
EU voters, according to surveys, are weighing up issues spanning from the war in Ukraine, economic prospects, trade protectionism including with the United States and the risk of artificial intelligence (AI) to jobs, migration, and also climate change.
In Austria, for example, according to a survey by the Austrian Society for European Politics which surveyed 5,400 people, a uniform EU migration and asylum policy (56 percent) and reducing the gap between the rich and the poor (55 percent) are among the highest priorities for citizens.
In the Czech Republic, far-right populist groups such as Freedom and Direct Democracy (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, or SPD) have succeeded in making the topic of migration a major issue in this election as well. It claims that the government negotiated a bad Migration and Asylum Pact for the Czech Republic and thus invited migrants to Europe and to the Czech Republic.
ANO 2011, the party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš which is part of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, has gradually become one of the most vocal critics of the EU. It strongly opposes the EU Green Deal and the recently adopted Migration and Asylum Pact. According to polls in May, ANO 2011 is set to win the elections with 23,1 percent of the vote.
Voting in the EU neighbourhood
While European countries that are not a member of the EU cannot vote in the European Parliament elections, in some countries, campaigns are still held.
An example is Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). On June 9, Croatian citizens in BiH will elect twelve MEPs from 300 candidates and 25 lists. The elections will be held at seven locations across the country.
BiH doesn’t have its own representatives in the European Parliament because it is not a member of the EU, but the policy of Croatian representatives is often focused on advocating for EU enlargement and other issues important to BiH, especially since Croats live in the country as a constituent people.
However, Slovenian, Polish and Romanian citizens will not be able to vote in the European Parliament elections in BiH, because the government did not give its consent after opposition from ministers of Serbian nationality. In Ljubljana, this decision was described as unacceptable and the Foreign Ministry summoned the interim Bosnian charge d’affaires in Slovenia to express its protest.
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