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Trade war: the eurozone will be less affected than elsewhere, says the IMF

by AI | 22.Apr 2025 | Europe in brief AI

“The increasing uncertainty” and “tariffs” will weigh on growth in the euro area this year, predicts the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has, however, lowered its projections less than for other regions of the world.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks on the "Global Economic Outlook" during the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, on April 22, 2025. (Photo: Jim WATSON / AFP)

Paris – The IMF estimates that “growing uncertainty and tariffs are the main drivers of moderate growth in 2025” in the eurozone, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday.

Even though he said he expects a 100% trade agreement with the Twenty-Seven, U.S. President Donald Trump is already applying punitive tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, in addition to a 10% surcharge on most products exported by the EU.

Germany is expected to show zero growth in 2025, the IMF forecasts: it has revised its forecast down by 0.3 points from what it said in January.

France is expected to have 0.6% growth this year, down 0.2 points from the January forecast, and Italy at 0.4%, down 0.3 points.

Notable exception: outside of Russia, Spain is the only country to see its growth forecast increase. The IMF is counting on 2.5% in 2025, thanks to reconstruction activities launched after significant flooding and strong momentum in 2024. (April 22, 2025)